UPDATE October 10, 2025: Unregulated drug deaths in Greater Victoria have continued to decline, with the last 4 months (May to August) being down more than 25% compared to the same period in 2024. Updated BC Coroner’s data.
Unregulated drug deaths are currently going down in BC – contrary to what headlines sometimes imply.
The chart above, from the BC Coroner’s Service, shows BC-wide annual drug deaths. The blue bars are number of deaths, and the yellow dots are deaths per 100,000 population. The blue bar for 2025 only shows the first four months of the year, but the yellow dot is the Coroner’s Service projection for all of 2025.
Some media headlines pointed to an uptick in April, e.g.
Those headlines are misleading. Here is the data showing monthly variability. Yes there is an uptick in April, but upticks and downticks are normal, and what is more important is the larger trend, which is downward.
And below are the per-month numbers. Yes, April was up from March, but it was also the lowest April since 2020. In fact, all months of this year so far are the lowest since 2020.
If 2025 continued at the pace of the first four months, BC would be at about 1,800 deaths this year (which is still a horribly large number, but the lowest in five years).
How are we doing in Greater Victoria? The numbers are smaller, so it’s more challenging to spot a clear trend, but 2024 (161) was down from 2023 (175). As the numbers below show, the monthly mean average in 2025 so far is less than 10.
Why are the deaths going down?
It’s not likely because of anything unique to BC, as deaths are going down for Canada as a whole, and for the United States.
Figures released this week by Health Canada suggest 17% reduction in opioid toxicity deaths between 2023 and 2024 (stimulant deaths were down 22%). Hospitalizations and EMS responses are also down, as the numbers below show. The US CDC’s preliminary data indicate that drug overdose deaths in 2024 were down 26.9% from 2023.
The cause of the current decline could be any combination of factors. Some speculation I’ve heard from doctors, public health employees, and service providers:
- Reduced numbers of people entering into harmful drug consumption
- Recent reductions in opioid prescribing
- Improved prevention programs
- Recent greater visibility and awareness of harm caused by opioids and meth
- Reduced harm from drug consumption
- Changes to the drugs being sold (it’s more profitable to keep buyers alive)
- Overdose responses, e.g. naloxone availability, more people trained (note the risks of repeated non-fatal overdoses*)
- Increased numbers exiting from harmful drug consumption
- Improved access to treatment and recovery pathways
- Improved outcomes of treatment and recovery
- The number of people using has declined due to overdose deaths (the worst possibility).
As noted above, even if the trend holds, the numbers are still horribly large.
* Note: the emerging research on non-fatal overdoses suggests that resulting brain injuries and cognitive decline are a rising epidemic, and can lead to further risks, including overdoses. I’m no expert on health science, but as a matter of public policy, this suggests that our provincial and federal health ministries need to do far more in addiction prevention, and building stronger and more available treatment and recovery pathways.
“Findings point to a vicious cycle of nonfatal overdose leading to neurodegeneration – closely resembling Alzheimer Disease – that results in cognitive decline that in turn leads to potentially reduced adherence to safe drug use behaviours.”
– M. Voronkov et al, “A vicious cycle of neuropathological, cognitive and behavioural sequelae of repeated opioid overdose“, International Journal of Drug Policy Volume 97, November 2021, 103362